Our Thoughts
End of the year rally?
Israel has a key position in the region, it's highly likely that we'll see energy prices impacted by the conflict, which has the potential to increase inflation.
Couple this new war with the ongoing war in Ukraine, and OPEC production cuts, a large and growing demand for oil and gas products is adding to renewed upward pressure.
Is the Bull Back on?
There are many positive developments taking place in the capital markets keeping market participants positive for the future outlook. Yet, at the same time there is equally enough negative economic data to keep institutions more cautious as they deem current valuations extended.
Will Spring Awaken The Bear?
The Fed does expect a "mild" recession in 2023 according to the recent Fed minutes. We can only hope that "mild recession" is not similar to the "transitory inflation" scenario the Fed touted in 2021.
Bank runs and 54% chance of recession?
If you recall, in last month's market outlook I remarked that I am cautiously optimistic (read here). I likened my cautiousness to the yellow flag that is waived in a formula one race.
Reduce speed, do not overtake, and be prepared to change direction.