Our Thoughts
What’s in store for Q4
Uncertainty is ramping up. Most notably, expanding geopolitical tensions and US election rhetoric, extreme market valuations, and unsustainable national debt.
Recession Still on the table?
If the consumer is hurt, they spend less. When consumers spend less, the economy weakens and businesses reduce their capital expenditures leading to layoffs and spending cuts. Former New York Fed president, Bill Dudley, refers to this as a “feedback loop”.
Bank runs and 54% chance of recession?
If you recall, in last month's market outlook I remarked that I am cautiously optimistic (read here). I likened my cautiousness to the yellow flag that is waived in a formula one race.
Reduce speed, do not overtake, and be prepared to change direction.