Our Thoughts
Normal Pullback or Deeper Correction?
With the Fed's perceived strong arm on monetary policy and the recent US debt and banking institution downgrades (possibly more on the way), a continued decline in leading economic indicators, and the Chinese economy blowing up, investors are suspicious that the current path will produce any positive outcome.
Is the big BEAR finally hibernating?
While the yield curve and leading economic indicators have been signaling a recession, other data such as the lagging indicators that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks to actually call a recession has held up, as of right now, AMAZINGLY well.
Operation Break Stuff?
Take a look at the FHFA House Price Index from Q3 2022 (Q4 out in January). According to Nataliya Polkovnichenko, the Supervisory Economist for the FHFA, “House price gains have substantially disintegrated in the 3rd quarter with a pace comparable to the one we observed during the great recession”.